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AntZ
08-04-2011, 09:13 PM
Dow Sinks 500, Worst Day Since Dec. 2008

Posted By: JeeYeon Park | CNBC.com Writer

| 04 Aug 2011 | 04:24 PM ET




Stocks plunged sharply Thursday, with the Dow down more than 500 points, in its worst one-day drop since December 2008.

All three major averages tumbled into negative territory for the year as investors were rattled over an intensifying global economic slowdown and ahead of the widely-followed monthly unemployment report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 512.76 points, or 4.31 percent, to close at 11,383.68, led by Alcoa and BofA . The last time the Dow dropped more than 500 points in a single session was in Dec. 2008.

The S&P 500 sank 60.27 points, or 4.78 percent, to end at 1,200.07.

The Nasdaq plunged 136.68 points, or 5.08 percent, to finish at 2556.39.

The major indexes are firmly in negative territory for the year. In addition, all three averages fell into "correction territory," defined by a drop of 10 percent from its peak from its intraday high in Apr. 29.

The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, surged more than 35 percent. The last time the VIX closed this high was on July 1, 2010.

Volume was at its highest level this year with the consolidated tape of the NYSE at 7.15 billion shares, while 1.82 billion shares changed hands on the floor.

"We're not steering this bus—it's all coming from Europe," Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services told CNBC. "We’re hearing reports of funds drawing out of European banks and we’re pretty close to something that might turn ugly."

"It may translate into a strain on the financials system and earnings on the multinationals, which have been carrying the load for Wall Street," Cashin added.


European shares hit a two-year low. The Bank of England and European Central Bank both left rates unchanged, but it did little to improve investor confidence. The ECB signaled it was buying government bonds in response to a deepening European debt crisis.

Investors were also spooked after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said "downside risks may have intensified."

"It is true that we are experiencing a high level of uncertainty, not just in the euro zone," he said.

On the economic front, weekly jobless claims were little changed last week, edging down to a seasonally adjusted 400,000, according to the Labor Department.

“The jobless claims number was not too encouraging … we need to see more of a significant improvement than the data just squeaking by,” said Doreen Mogavero, president and CEO of Mogavero Lee & Company.

The claims news comes ahead of Friday's government non-farm payroll data, which likely increased 85,000 last month, according to a Reuters survey, after rising only 18,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 9.2 percent.

“We’ve reduced our equity exposure by half at the end of the second quarter,” said Rob Stein, portfolio manager and senior economist of Astor Asset Management. “We’ll need to see the economic data stabilize.”

Adding to day's woes, JPMorgan cut its third-quarter U.S. economic growth forecast by 1 percent, pointing to recent developments in the U.S. economy. The firm added that it doesn't expect the Fed to raise interest rates until at least 2013.

The dollar soared against a basket of currencies. The greenback's surge came amid a weakening economic outlook and moves by Japan to intervene in the forex market to bolster the yen.

Meanwhile, gold reversed its gains, trading below $1,653 an ounce as investors opted for cash to cover losses outside of the bullion market amid deepening losses on Wall Street.

Bank of NY Mellon announced it will start charging "large depositors" to hold cash due to a sudden increase in dollar deposits prompted by fears among its customers.

All 10 S&P sectors were trading lower, led by energy, materials and industrials.

Oil prices tumbled, with U.S. light, sweet crude crashing through technical support of $86.25 a barrel, its lowest level since February. London Brent crude fell below $109. Major oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron tumbled.

Among earnings, GM fell even after after the automaker posted earnings that nearly doubled, as the firm a larger share of sales globally and raised prices on its vehicles.

Kraft Foods earnings beat estimates, raised its guidance and announced it will split in two. Major investor Nelson Peltz said he is excited about the split and has been increasing his stake in the firm. Berkshire Hathaway is also one of Kraft's biggest shareholders.

AIG and Sunoco are expected to post earnings after-the-bell tonight.

U.S. warehouse club operator Costco posted a better-than-expected chain-store sales, helped by higher gas prices and strengthening foreign currencies. Teen-oriented chains Hot Topic and Wet Seal blew past estimates, but rival Zumiez missed expectations.

Dendreon plunged over 60 percent after the drugmaker abandoned its forecast for its prostate cancer vaccine Provenge and said it plans to cut jobs to reduce costs.

FBD
08-04-2011, 09:22 PM
correction #1...

deebakes
08-05-2011, 12:06 AM
:rip:

Godfather
08-05-2011, 02:13 AM
Fuck.

Deepsepia
08-05-2011, 02:34 AM
Curiosity of the day: dollar deposits are so much in demand that Bank of New York is charging depositors a fee for taking their deposits!

On a similar note, and one month Treasury Bills were trading at a negative yield (that is, investors were paying $100.003 to get back $100 in one month)

The moral of the story is that deficit cutting today makes no sense (and probably can't be done). To the extent that the markets "signal" anything, they are not signalling inflation, but rather the risk of deflationary collapse.

Astonishingly, the demand for someone to borrow your money extends to mortgages-- the 15 year (for those with sterling credit) is going for %3.54 or so, and 30 year mortgages are going at just %4. 39 That's fixed

If you believe inflation is coming, you'll never get a better way to bet on it than borrowing for 30 years at %4.39

Godfather
08-05-2011, 03:09 AM
Any good articles on that Deep?!? Love to post something with that sentiment on Facebook :-k

Deepsepia
08-05-2011, 05:10 AM
Any good articles on that Deep?!? Love to post something with that sentiment on Facebook :-k

"Mortgage Rates at Record Low"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/15-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-at-record-low-2011-08-04

Bank requires Depositor to pay them
"BNY Mellon Makes Clients Pay for Deposits as Investors Seek Safety in Cash"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-05/bny-mellon-makes-clients-pay-for-deposits-as-investors-seek-safety-in-cash.html

You know, this is the kind of weird hypothetical scenario what we'd talk about in Econ 101, and our section leader would say "could never happen". Technically, this is called a "liquidity trap" and Keynes wrote about it -- occurred during the Depression. I don't think many people thought it would be see again.

The combination of massive debt with deflation is just too strange.

The response should be more public spending. I mean, if people are so desperate to lend the government money that they'll pay for the privilege, well, the government should say "yes", and use the money to build infrastructure-- putting people to work and building or repairing valuable assets. However, that seems to be the precise thing we're not going to be doing . . .

Godfather
08-05-2011, 06:11 AM
Keynesian economics has a lot of debate though doesn't it... The Austrian school is obviously a major one. If I remember it's more about allowing a natural and spontaneous market as opposed to high intervention and spending. And Austria reeled it in, played it conservatively in the Depression and recovered at a greater rate than most didn't they?

Deepsepia
08-05-2011, 07:13 AM
Keynesian economics has a lot of debate though doesn't it... The Austrian school is obviously a major one. If I remember it's more about allowing a natural and spontaneous market as opposed to high intervention and spending. And Austria reeled it in, played it conservatively in the Depression and recovered at a greater rate than most didn't they?

These ideas have been mistakenly turned into political badges; economics isn't physics-- this isn't Newton vs Einstein. The reality is that we don't fully understand the economy . . . compare the quality of economic predictions, by economists of any flavor, with those of physicists or biologists. No comparison. The "Austrian school" is theoretical and dates from after WWII . . . was not applied during the Depression (remember-- Austria get conqered by the Nazis in the Anschluss). Austria is a very wealthy country, and did very well after World War II -- but with a socialist government. The "Austrian School" (eg von Mises and Hayek) were of Austrian birth, but had next to no influence in Austria -- and they both emigrated, they're known for their work at London School of Economics and most particularly at the University of Chicago.

When economists are _right_ they do a good job of explaining what just happened. None of them have even the faintest shred of a claim to the power of prediction. Much of the issue is what Keynes called "Animal Spirits", which is basically a kind of herd sentiment, as individuals check out prospects, and each other. . . it turns on a dime and its more about emotion than anything else.

Ask this question: when will Vancouver's real estate market crack? It will crack, but when? Answer: no one knows-- but one thing that's for certain, you'll see an erosion of greed into fear very quickly. Folks will go from "I heard Gord got $3 million for that rundown place in Kits, and my brother-in-law's in nice than his" to "ohmigod, I should have sold". Financial markets sit on top of the aggregate of these emotions, and because they're so dependent on the experience of others, its inherently quite unstable. Bubbles and crashes are, in theory, undesirable-- in practice you can't avoid them.

FBD
08-05-2011, 10:59 AM
The combination of massive debt with deflation is just too strange.

The response should be more public spending. I mean, if people are so desperate to lend the government money that they'll pay for the privilege, well, the government should say "yes", and use the money to build infrastructure-- putting people to work and building or repairing valuable assets. However, that seems to be the precise thing we're not going to be doing . . .

Are you saying "this is what the textbook response should be" or are you really advocating for more debt?

A bridge may be a bridge, but debt is also debt. We've got plenty of both.

Muddy
08-05-2011, 01:00 PM
The good things here though..

A lot of the foreclosure bullshit is done...

The major banks are in great shape..

The major corporations that weathered the storm of 2008 are in great financial shape...

We are not in the same boat as 2008.

Dont let the news terrify you.. Those whores are gunning for a story ...