Here you go DGX...

[Teh One Who Knocks]

http://i.imgur.com/jClmm.jpg

[Hal-9000]

50%

[PorkChopSandwiches]

:tup:

[Teh One Who Knocks]

Are you sure? ;)

[PorkChopSandwiches]

If the answer is 60%, it’s 25%. If the answer is 25% it’s 50%. If the answer is 50% it’s 25%. There’s an endless loop with no correct answer.

[Godfather]

Both Pork and Hal did what I did at first, but once you stare at it a while longer, you realize it's a very strange riddle

EDIT: This is some very, very ambiguous shit right here. I'm mad at lance, this has wasted my entire morning :lol:

My guess is:You have a 33.33% chance of selecting anyone of 25, 50 or 60%. Whether you chose 25% as A. or D. is irrelevant, IF they're considered the same answer. So 1/3 would be the answer if that was what we were asked to find, but that's not the question :-k

If you had a Marker who sees A and D as different answers, you have a 1/4 chance of being correct :lol: Also not the question.

Neither of those is looking at the Riddle.

It says: "Chose an answer to this question at random"... well what kind of "answer" am I selecting? My answer could be Apple, or 49,493... Because it doesn't say anything like Chose From One of the 4 Options below. The options A, B, C & D aren't what 'answer' we're choosing, they're the choices for Probability of choosing a random answer correctly :lol:

This entire thing is a mess. You're asked to make an answer randomly, and then select the probability that -THAT- answer will be right. If you chose the answer yourself, then you have a 100% of being right, don't you :lol: Unless the 'Marker' is someone else, in which case you have an almost 0% chance of randomly selecting their correct answer.

[Hal-9000]

Both Pork and Hal did what I did at first, but once you stare at it a while longer, you realize it's a very strange riddle

EDIT: This is some very, very ambiguous shit right here. I'm mad at lance, this has wasted my entire morning :lol:

My guess is:You have a 33.33% chance of selecting anyone of 25, 50 or 60%. Whether you chose 25% as A. or D. is irrelevant, IF they're considered the same answer. So 1/3 would be the answer if that was what we were asked to find, but that's not the question :-k

If you had a Marker who sees A and D as different answers, you have a 1/4 chance of being correct :lol: Also not the question.

Neither of those is looking at the Riddle.

It says: "Chose an answer to this question at random"... well what kind of "answer" am I selecting? My answer could be Apple, or 49,493... Because it doesn't say anything like Chose From One of the 4 Options below. The options A, B, C & D aren't what 'answer' we're choosing, they're the choices for Probability of choosing a random answer correctly :lol:

This entire thing is a mess. You're asked to make an answer randomly, and then select the probability that -THAT- answer will be right. If you chose the answer yourself, then you have a 100% of being right, don't you :lol: Unless the 'Marker' is someone else, in which case you have an almost 0% chance of randomly selecting their correct answer.

that's what I thought of later as I was looking for 30000 dollars worth of stock one of our order picker's screwed up :lol:

if all of the choices are different, it would be 25% of course...since two answers are the same , 50% would be the immediate choice....thinking further it becomes a 3 way thing..

ad
b
c

so the answer should be 33%

[Hal-9000]

WAIT....the whole thing is a trick :)



it's 25% or a 1 in 4 chance

[DemonGeminiX]

The answer is obviously 33%.

:)

[Godfather]

The answer is obviously 33%.

:)

No it's not, unfortunately :lol: That would depend firstly on how the Marker determined what stands as correct, if that's the random answer you chose. Ie. Are A & D both correct if the answer was 25%? But that's looking at this riddle all wrong.

It's asking you to chose and answer to a question which is ambiguous. The Options (A,B,C or D) are the probability that your 'Random Answer' to the 'Question' are correct.... not the answers.

Said another way: It's not asking 'if you to chose A, B,C or D, what the probability that your choice was correct.' It wants to know, if you chose an answer to 'the' question at random, which of these: (A, B, C or D) are the probability that your answer is right.

Where does that even leave us :lol: At 0 chance.

[Muddy]

B

[Joebob034]

False

[Muddy]

14

[DemonGeminiX]

Think about the problem. We have 4 possible options consisting of 3 distinct answers to an unknown question. In this case, we don't care what the question is. Why? Because we're not being asked to choose an answer a, b, c, or d. We're being asked to determine the probability that 25%, 50%, or 60% being the correct answer when chosen at random. We're guessing. We don't care what the problem is that has a, b, c, d as options. We don't need to know. All we need to know is that we have 25%, 50%, and 60% as distinct answers and only one is right. But since we don't know what the question is, we can only guess at the answer. What's the probability that we choose the right distinct answer? It's like taking a scantron test and having no earthly clue how to answer a single question, so you just mark one of the options and move on to the rest of the test.

Think of the a, b, c, d equating to 25%, 50%, 60%, and 25% this way. There are 4 doors leading to 3 rooms. 2 doors leads to room A, 1 door leads to room B, and 1 door leads to room C. Only one room has a light on when you walk in. What's the probability that you are going to choose the correct ROOM (the one with the light on) when guessing at random? WE DON'T CARE WHICH DOOR IS CHOSEN. The door is irrelevant. The only thing that's relevant is the room chosen. So we have three rooms, each has a 1/3rd probabilty of having the light on when entering it.

We have three distinct answers, each of which has a 1/3rd probability of being the correct answer to the unknown question when chosen at random.

The fact that 25% is listed twice while the other two are listed only once is is irrelevant.

The answer is 1/3rd or 33.33%=> or just 33%

[RBP]

Potato

[DemonGeminiX]

Baked, scalloped, or mashed?

:-k

[RBP]

http://static.themetapicture.com/media/funny-solving-equation-math-test-answer-potato.jpg

[Godfather]

Think about the problem. We have 4 possible options consisting of 3 distinct answers to an unknown question. In this case, we don't care what the question is. Why? Because we're not being asked to choose an answer a, b, c, or d. We're being asked to determine the probability that 25%, 50%, or 60% being the correct answer when chosen at random. We're guessing. We don't care what the problem is that has a, b, c, d as options. We don't need to know. All we need to know is that we have 25%, 50%, and 60% as distinct answers and only one is right. But since we don't know what the question is, we can only guess at the answer. What's the probability that we choose the right distinct answer? It's like taking a scantron test and having no earthly clue how to answer a single question, so you just mark one of the options and move on to the rest of the test.

Think of the a, b, c, d equating to 25%, 50%, 60%, and 25% this way. There are 4 doors leading to 3 rooms. 2 doors leads to room A, 1 door leads to room B, and 1 door leads to room C. Only one room has a light on when you walk in. What's the probability that you are going to choose the correct ROOM (the one with the light on) when guessing at random? WE DON'T CARE WHICH DOOR IS CHOSEN. The door is irrelevant. The only thing that's relevant is the room chosen. So we have three rooms, each has a 1/3rd probabilty of having the light on when entering it.

We have three distinct answers, each of which has a 1/3rd probability of being the correct answer to the unknown question when chosen at random

The fact that 25% is listed twice while the other two are listed only once is is irrelevant.

The answer is 1/3rd or 33.33%=> or just 33%

Ya ya I know exactly what you're saying, I said the same in my first post too :lol: But that is not what you're being asked on the chalkboard. This is a riddle for a reason.


Look at it again:

Multiple Choice: If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct? A) 25% B) 50% C) 60% D) 25%

A, B, C & D are not your random answers to the 'question' to find probability for. They're just your options for the probability of your 'answer' being right. You can't say 33% because that's not an option :lol:

You're overlooking the wording that makes it a riddle and not simple math.

http://understandinguncertainty.org/probability-paradox

[RBP]

http://i.imgur.com/GcIbs.jpg

[Godfather]

Here is another way to view the same question to see where the riddle is.


Q. Choose an answer to this question at random: ______?






What is the chance you will be correct?
A) 25%
B) 50%
C) 60%
D) 25%

[DemonGeminiX]

Here is another way to view the same question to see where the riddle lies.

No, that's stating a fundamentally different proposition from the one in Lance's original picture. Think about it.

[Godfather]

No, that's stating a fundamentally different proposition from the one in Lance's original picture. Think about it.

No it's not... I understand I reworded it liberally, but I'm trying to show why this is a riddle and not simply "chose 1 of the 3 answers." That's not what the chalkboard riddle is asking you to do. A, B, C and D aren't the answers, they're the probability of your answer being correct. You're supposed to select one like it's a M.C. question, not answer which of those you're probable to chose correctly.

Check this link, he kind of clears up the ways to view this paradox, and there are several

http://understandinguncertainty.org/probability-paradox

[DemonGeminiX]

Sorry bro. I'm looking at the wording hard and I'm not buying it. With the question stated as is in Lance's original post I'm sticking by what I said.

I'll think about it some more and I'll turn over some of the ideas you stated, but I'm sticking by my answer at this point in time.

[RBP]

potato!

[DemonGeminiX]

No it's really not... I'm trying to show you why this is a riddle and not simply "chose 1/3 answers which could be right"

Yeah it really is. Taking out the "If" changes everything. Trust me. Think about it. Look at the first post and look at your reformulation and think about how they're different.

[Godfather]

Yeah it really is. Taking out the "If" changes everything. Trust me. Think about it. Look at the first post and look at your reformulation and think about how they're different.

http://i.imgur.com/jClmm.jpg

One way to do it (because it's ambiguous): The question is: If you chose an answer to this question at random.... ( go for it, at this point)

(And so now it's multiple choice: ) Which of A, B, C, or D equate to the chance that your answer is correct?

That is a paradox.

It can't be 33%, because your options are only: 25, 50, 60


Nowhere does it say: Chose from A, B, C or D... what is your chance of one of those being correct (yes, that would obviously be 33%)

And that's only one of the problems with the wording.

[RBP]

http://i.imgur.com/pwfDo.png

[Godfather]

These guys are better at wording it than me :lol:



“Multiple Choice: If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct? A’) 25% B’) 50% C’) 0% D’) 25%”

This suggests a variant:

“Multiple Choice: If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct? A’) 25% B’) 50% C’) 0% D’) 25%”

My answers are ….

0% for the first. My reasoning is to consider A…D in turn and to show that each is wrong:

If A were correct, then so would D be, and hence the probability of the correct answer being selected is 50%. Thus A and D are both wrong.
If B were correct, then the probability of the correct answer being selected is 25%. Thus B is wrong. Similarly for C.

For the second, I claim that the answer is ‘None’. Again I consider each possible answer in turn and show that each is wrong.

If C’ is correct then the probability of the correct answer being selected is 25%. Thus C’ is wrong.
Since the answers are all wrong, if the probability of the correct answer being selected is a number, then it is 0%, and so C’ must be true. But C’ is not true, so the required probability is not a number.

To put it another way, ‘chance’ in the question is meaningless since the structure of the question mimics Russell’s paradox. This puzzle seems more appealing than Keynes’ examples of non-numeric probabilities, which assume a richness of life experiences.


1) There can be no solution, since the ambiguity of ‘correct’ makes the question ill-posed.

It's true the question is ambiguous, but this still seems a bit of a cop-out.

2) There is no solution.

This seems to take this interpretation of the question.

Which answer (or set of answers) of “p%”, is such that the statement ‘the probability of picking such an answer is p%’ is true?

Then this appears to be a well-posed question, but there is no solution.

3) 0%.

Consider a different interpretation of the question.

Is there a p%, such that the statement ‘the probability of picking an answer “p%” is p%’ is true?

Then this appears a well-posed question and has the solution p = 0, even though this is not one of the answers. Of course if answer C) were changed to “0%” (as it is in this 2007 version of the question ), then this would also have no solution.

4) We can produce any answer we want by changing the probability distribution for the choice.

Why should ‘random’ mean an equally likely chance of picking the 4 answers? If we, say, assume the probabilities of choosing (A) (B) (C) (D) to be (10%, 20%, 60%, 10%) then the answer to either formulation (2) and (3) is now “60%”. But if we make the distribution (12.5%, 15%, 60%, 12.5%) then we seem to back to square one again, since there is now both a 25% chance of picking “25%”, and a 60% chance of picking “60%”.

[RBP]

http://i.imgur.com/2v2Lv.gif

[Godfather]

Where's the fucking Negative-Thanks button :lol:

[RBP]

I maka me raugh!

[Hal-9000]

I suck dick for potato :lol:

[RBP]

I suck dick for potato :lol:

:lol:

[Hal-9000]

I couldn't post the pic...made me feel bad



:lol:

[Godfather]

Fuck all these internet nerds and their 2x2=5 bullshit I'm going to play Ghost Recon, 33% I can live with

Future Soldier is awesome btw Hal...

[RBP]

I couldn't post the pic...made me feel bad


:lol:

Pussy!! :lol:

[RBP]

It's 33% whatever fuck all these internet nerds and their 2x2=5 bullshit I'm going to play Ghost Recon

Future Soldier is awesome btw Hal...

sell me some insurance bitch!

[Godfather]

sell me some insurance bitch!

I hear you yanks don't have to have car insurance in some states, is that true :lol:

[RBP]

I hear you yanks don't have to have car insurance in some states, is that true :lol:

I'll yank you! :x

waitwut??

[Hal-9000]

Fuck all these internet nerds and their 2x2=5 bullshit I'm going to play Ghost Recon, 33% I can live with

Future Soldier is awesome btw Hal...

WTF was that man? A hidden math admission (concession) hidden within a gaming post?? :lol:

[Hal-9000]

Future soldier...hmmmm....I'm not sure if I've played enough Skyrim


give me a few minutes, I'll take a screenshot

brb

[Godfather]

WTF was that man? A hidden math admission (concession) hidden within a gaming post?? :lol:

Nah, I can't un-see it the way I do, but I thought about it this morning and now for the last hour and haven't been able to convince one person so whatever :lol:


Future soldier...hmmmm....I'm not sure if I've played enough Skyrim


give me a few minutes, I'll take a screenshot

brb

Tried to make Hal go to rehab but he said noooo...

[RBP]

that was such a weaksauce Winehouse reference.... dead girl for shame!

[Hal-9000]

this is about 3/5ths of the map :)


http://i.imgur.com/Yv863.jpg

[Hal-9000]

:lol:






http://i.imgur.com/TJqQO.jpg

[RBP]

If I could physically stay awake longer I would fuck with you god forsaken cretins!

[Hal-9000]

Joan displays her vagina and takes a header onto the couch...awwwww :lol:

I'm going to take some Aleve, some non prescription medication and stay up

[Godfather]

:lol:






http://i.imgur.com/TJqQO.jpg

Oh my god :lol:

[Hal-9000]

I'm gonna get a couple of quick hours in tonight too....kinda like a fast game of Risk :lol:

[Teh One Who Knocks]

EDIT: This is some very, very ambiguous shit right here. I'm mad at lance, this has wasted my entire morning :lol:

:dance:

[Goofy]

You guys are funny :tup: