Jobs report beats forecasts with 163,000 jobs in July

[RBP]

The nation's unemployment rate ticked up from 8.2% to 8.3% as the economy added a surprising 163,000 jobs in July.

U.S. stock index futures rose moderately after the report, indicating a higher open on Wall Street.

The number of payroll jobs beat forecasts that called for about 100,000 new jobs, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Overall, private employers added 172,000 jobs in July while governments cut 9,000, the Labor Department reported.

Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places and manufacturing, the government said.

Employment continues to recover slowly from a recession that pushed unemployment to 10% in October 2009.

The number of unemployed was 12.8 million in July and the number of long-term unemployed was 5.2 million. Both showed little change from June.

The economy added an average of 225,000 jobs a month in the first quarter, but the gains slowed to fewer than half that number in the second quarter.

A warmer than usual winter pulled some hiring from spring into early 2012, and job creation also has been stunted by the European financial crisis and business anxiety over a series of tax increases and federal spending cuts scheduled to take effect at the end of the year, says Patrick O'Keefe, chief economist at consulting firm J.H. Cohn.

In both 2010 and 2011, the economy began the year briskly and stumbled by mid-year, he said.

This year, the pattern has repeated itself. Gross domestic product growth slipped to a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter from 4.1% late last year, the Commerce Department reported last week. Consumer spending grew more slowly and government spending fell. Growth may hit 1% in the fourth quarter, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

In recent days, a report on factory orders said the manufacturing sector, which has led the recovery and added a half-million jobs since 2010, is slipping back into contraction. The most recent report on retail sales showed a third straight month of decline as well.

The bad news has been offset by improvements in housing starts, home prices and new unemployment-insurance claims. A stronger housing market may lead the private sector to faster growth next year, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said.

[Teh One Who Knocks]

Unemployment is up :woot:





When things go up, that means it's good, right? :-k

[Richard Cranium]

Unemployment Rate Rises to 8.3 Percent; 163,000 New Jobs Created in July


The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in the United States rose to 8.3 percent in July, with the economy adding a net of 163,000 jobs, according to estimates calculated by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of jobs added was more than expected, but was not enough to keep up with new entrants into the job market, reinforcing conclusions that the U.S. economy is stagnant. With overall economic growth slowing, weak employment numbers could indicate that the U.S. is following other industrial economies on a downward path back into recession. June's job number was revised down from 80,000 new jobs to 64,000.

Earlier this week, new claims for jobless benefits had risen to 365,000--slightly lower than expectations--while the private sector added 163,000 jobs in July, well ahead of expectations but down from the previous month. Manufacturing output fell again in July, after falling in June for the first time in three years. Surveys of economists had predicted that the unemployment rate would remain unchanged at 8.2 percent, with 95,000 to 100,000 new jobs created. It was thought that only a positive, unexpected development could lower the rate. Despite the growth in jobs--the highest in five months--the slow economy could not lower the overall jobless rate.

[KevinD]

It's a win-win spin baby!

[Richard Cranium]

Media Spins Rise In Unemployment Rate as Good News

Announcement! Announcement! We are at war with Eastasia today!

Announcement! Announcement! We are at war with Eurasia today!

I mean, Easta--

I mean-, Eur-

Oh, screw it -- Vote for Obama!

Unemployment increased today for the second time in just a few months. In April, the unemployment rate was 8.1%. In May it rose to 8.2%. Last month unemployment rose once again to 8.3%.

Last month also saw a better than predicted increase in jobs numbers, 163,000 new jobs were created. But you have to grade those numbers on one helluva curve to in any spin it as a good thing. We need at least that many jobs per month just to keep up with the population and in a real recovery we should at least be gaining 300,000 jobs per month.

Only an abject failure like Obama could make 165,000 sound anything like good news.

This, however, did not stop MSNBC's Morning Joe crew or CNN's Soledad O'Brien from assuring us that we really are at war with Eastasia today.

There was too much going on for me to get the names, but on "Morning Joe," a show that poses as oh-so serious and thoughtful, the roundtable actually discussed how the uptick in the unemployment rate is a GOOD THING because it means people are confident enough to get back in the labor force.

Over at CNN, O'Brien squeaked the jobs numbers and unemployment rate and then laughably shouted SQUIRREL, cutting to a segment about the new "Bourne" movie. Afterwards, she returned to interview a former Clinton official who suggested the unemployment rate going up is, you guessed it, a good thing!

No mention was made of the fact that 155,000 people gave up looking for work in July.

No mention was made of the fact that this is longest stretch of unemployment above 8% since the Great Depression.

No mention was made of the fact that U-6 rate, which measures the underemployed, increased to 15%.

No mention was made of the fact that if our labor force was the same size as it was in '09, the unemployment rate would be 10.6%.

Hey, guess what the headline is at Politico right now? "Jobs numbers better than expected." Nothing about the rise in unemployment -- the second rise in just a few months.

Perhaps the most laughable piece of pro-Obama shilling came from CNN's Carol Costello. As we all know, when a Republican is in the White House and the economy is in trouble, we get story after story after story about the suffering and hopelessness of everyday folks who are struggling and looking for work.

My jaw about hit the ground when Obama shill Costello introduced a segment about a guy who's been unemployed since Obama took office and only now found a job. Then came the sucker punch.

Guess who he's voting for?

Yep, Obama.

Why?

Because Romney can’t relate to the common man.

[PorkChopSandwiches]

Micky Mouse 2012

[RBP]

The markets liked the report :dunno:

[KevinD]

The US is at war with Eastaisia now? Oh fuck, that's where I am! Oh wait, I'm in Southeastasia. It's all good.

[Richard Cranium]

AP: 'Stronger Job Creation Could Help Obama's Re-election'


That headline is not made up, it comes from a quote from the very same Associated Press that just last week completely fabricated Mitt Romney's Palestinian 'gaffe'. (http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/08/02/Kurtz-Uncovers-AP-Romney-Smear) Today the AP is spinning a rise in unemployment and a measly 165,000 jobs created as the kind of "stronger job creation" that could win Their Precious One reelection. The writer of this nonsense is Christopher S. Rugaber and the shilling is nothing more than propaganda. Rugaber not only wrist-flicks the second uptick in unemployment in just a few month, he tries to pretend the increase is statistically meaningless.
Emphasis mine:
Stronger job creation could help President Barack Obama's re-election hopes. Still, the unemployment rate has been above 8 percent since his first month in office — the longest stretch on record. No president since World War II has faced re-election with unemployment over 8 percent. …
The government uses two surveys to measure employment. A survey of businesses showed job gains. The unemployment rate comes from a survey of households, which showed fewer people had jobs. Economists say the business survey is more reliable.
Not that any of this surprises me, but watching the media hit new low after new low is nonetheless amusing.
In my lifetime, this is without a doubt the first time the media has ever celebrated a rise in the unemployment rate as a good thing.
Drudge was the first to find this AP story and includes the rare comment on his site:
THEY BOTH CANT BE RIGHT:
Reuters: Labor market slowed sharply after strong gains in winter, spelling trouble for Obama... (http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCABRE8720MP20120803)
AP: Stronger job creation could help Obama's re-election hopes... (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-unemployment-rate-rises-8-130044686.html)
And it's only August.

[FBD]

yeah, wait until the "corrections" - these numbers are fudged and massaged like crazy.

[Hal-9000]

it's that algebra thing again isn't it? :confused:

163, 000 new jobs but unemployment rises by a percent?


where the hell is X

[Richard Cranium]

For Hal

The media is high-fiving itself over the July Jobs Report's headline number that 163,000 jobs were created in July. This simply tells us that economics is not a prerequisite for a journalism degree. Obviously, its good news if there is a net-gain in jobs in a given month, but we shouldn't extrapolate too much from today's headline number. In fact, there is lots of worrisome data in today's report.

Let's call today's report a "Tale of Two Surveys." In calculating the jobs report, the Labor Department conducts a survey of employers and a survey of households. The survey of employers gives us an estimate of the numerical number of jobs created or lost. The household survey gives us the unemployment rate. Because of quirky "seasonal adjustments" made to the employer survey, we have a report where we "added" 163,000 jobs, 150,000 people left the work-force (who are no longer counted in terms of the unemployment rate) and, yet, the unemployment rate went up to 8.3%, breaking records for the longest time unemployment in the U.S. has been over 8%.

This paradox is explained by the household survey, which showed that employment fell by 195,000 last month, the first decline in the survey in three months. This is important, because the household survey does a better job of capturing employment in small businesses and new start-ups. The Labor Department's employer survey, which generates the net-payroll number, is based on large companies and government agencies. Expect a big down-ward revision in today's headline number next month. June's payroll number, after all, was revised down today a full 20%.

Even setting aside the conflicting signals from the different surveys and assuming the 163k headline number is real, this is still bad news overall. The economy needs to add over 200k jobs each month, just to keep pace with population growth. Until we reach that level, we won't be able to add the jobs that were lost in the aftermath of the recession.

Worse, there is nothing in some of the other under-lying numbers to suggest a return to robust growth anytime soon. Hours worked per week, 34.5, were unchanged from last month. Overtime was also flat. This is important because employers will generally increase the hours of existing employees before they add to their payrolls. That they aren't suggests that their current workforce is adequate to meet current economic demands.

Hourly earnings were also flat, rising just 2 cents. Adjusting for even the relatively low inflation indicates that real earnings fell this month, a very bearish sign for future consumer spending.

Today's report confirms what many of us have known; the economy is stalled. Perhaps it isn't declining, but there is very little growth to be seen anywhere. But, our economy needs growth to even stay even. If growth continues to be as elusive as today's jobs report suggests, the actual decline is just a matter of time.

[PorkChopSandwiches]

Dont forget that unemployment number are figured based on the checks they send out, just because you stopped getting a check doesn't mean you got a job.

[Hal-9000]

Thanks Richard and PCS...I guess I tend not to believe in stats for anything (one of the reasons I don't post many links)

It would impossible to capture all of the date pertaining to who's working and who's not because of the illegals, the under the table workers and the people who simply don't get captured in the surveys..

It's like the population of the world....not everyone participates so it's a best guess scenario....at best