Teh One Who Knocks
03-27-2014, 11:48 AM
Professor Stefan Hedlund - World Review
THE NEXT frontier of military conflict will be space - and China is the nation likely to triumph, writes Professor Stephan Hedlund.
Space offers China the stage on which to assert itself as the world’s most powerful force and the rising nation is demonstrating its potential as it ramps up its space programme with a string of ambitious moves with plans to build its own space station, a manned lunar landing, and a manned missions to Mars.
Some observers are already forecasting the nation will surpass America and Russia as the world’s pre-eminent spacefaring power – a position made increasingly possible due to rising tensions between the Kremlin and Washington.
There are fears that existing collaboration over joint space programmes between Russia and the West may suffer. The International Space Station (ISS) is one example. The US has been unable to send astronauts to and from the ISS without Russian assistance since the retirement, in 2011, of its own space shuttle programme.
Washington pays US$70 million for each seat on Russia's Soyuz spacecraft. If tensions over Ukraine escalate, Russia may refuse to perform this service.
The two sides are locked into what one observer calls ‘reluctant co-dependency’. While the ISS solar panels are American, critical life support systems are Russian and navigation systems come from both. Neither side would be able to operate the ISS without the other.
But the future of the space race, and the militarisation of space, will not hinge just on relations between Russia and the West. It will be determined by the rapid development of Chinese high technology, backed by the determination of the Communist Party leadership that China shall assume a leading role.
The country which has an edge in civilian space exploration will have an edge in potential military use of space.
Following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 there has been broad agreement between Russia and the West that space must not be militarised but be a frontier for advanced collaboration.
The showcase of such collaboration has been the ISS which began operating in 2000. It has survived numerous high-profile confrontations between Russia and the West, ranging from the 2003 American-led invasion of Iraq to the Russian war with Georgia in 2008. And this is likely to remain the case.
But a more likely form of collateral damage concerns US dependence on industrial collaboration with Russia and Ukraine.
The workhorse of the American expendable rocket fleet is the Atlas V used to launch NASA probes and top secret Pentagon spy satellites. It is powered by a Russian-built RD-180 rocket engine.
The Antares rocket is critical to restoring a US capability to fly cargo resupply missions to the ISS. Its booster stage is built in the eastern - Russian-speaking - part of Ukraine.
Despite tensions, both Russia and the West need to be aware of the third party entering the game - with a long-term strategy to win.
China launched its first satellites as late as 1970. It was not seen as a competitor in space.
That changed when China became the third nation to conduct manned missions in space with Yang Liwei’s flight in 2003. In 2013, Beijing sent three astronauts to dock with an orbital laboratory, and it landed a lunar rover – the Jade Rabbit – on the moon in December 2013. Plans for the future include a permanent space station by 2020 and manned expeditions both to the Moon and to Mars.
John Hickman, a US professor of political science, said in August 2013, ‘There are unmistakable warning signs that China may surpass the United States and Russia to become the world's pre-eminent spacefaring power’.
Although China is presently in no more than eighth place globally by spending, its space programme has been developed based on a long-term strategy with robust political support and funding.
China may still remain inferior to the US in high technology, but it has around a quarter of a million people at work on the space programme, and they are both young and eager. With an average age in the low 30s, they recall the dynamism and enthusiasm of the Kennedy generation that built the US space programme.
THE NEXT frontier of military conflict will be space - and China is the nation likely to triumph, writes Professor Stephan Hedlund.
Space offers China the stage on which to assert itself as the world’s most powerful force and the rising nation is demonstrating its potential as it ramps up its space programme with a string of ambitious moves with plans to build its own space station, a manned lunar landing, and a manned missions to Mars.
Some observers are already forecasting the nation will surpass America and Russia as the world’s pre-eminent spacefaring power – a position made increasingly possible due to rising tensions between the Kremlin and Washington.
There are fears that existing collaboration over joint space programmes between Russia and the West may suffer. The International Space Station (ISS) is one example. The US has been unable to send astronauts to and from the ISS without Russian assistance since the retirement, in 2011, of its own space shuttle programme.
Washington pays US$70 million for each seat on Russia's Soyuz spacecraft. If tensions over Ukraine escalate, Russia may refuse to perform this service.
The two sides are locked into what one observer calls ‘reluctant co-dependency’. While the ISS solar panels are American, critical life support systems are Russian and navigation systems come from both. Neither side would be able to operate the ISS without the other.
But the future of the space race, and the militarisation of space, will not hinge just on relations between Russia and the West. It will be determined by the rapid development of Chinese high technology, backed by the determination of the Communist Party leadership that China shall assume a leading role.
The country which has an edge in civilian space exploration will have an edge in potential military use of space.
Following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 there has been broad agreement between Russia and the West that space must not be militarised but be a frontier for advanced collaboration.
The showcase of such collaboration has been the ISS which began operating in 2000. It has survived numerous high-profile confrontations between Russia and the West, ranging from the 2003 American-led invasion of Iraq to the Russian war with Georgia in 2008. And this is likely to remain the case.
But a more likely form of collateral damage concerns US dependence on industrial collaboration with Russia and Ukraine.
The workhorse of the American expendable rocket fleet is the Atlas V used to launch NASA probes and top secret Pentagon spy satellites. It is powered by a Russian-built RD-180 rocket engine.
The Antares rocket is critical to restoring a US capability to fly cargo resupply missions to the ISS. Its booster stage is built in the eastern - Russian-speaking - part of Ukraine.
Despite tensions, both Russia and the West need to be aware of the third party entering the game - with a long-term strategy to win.
China launched its first satellites as late as 1970. It was not seen as a competitor in space.
That changed when China became the third nation to conduct manned missions in space with Yang Liwei’s flight in 2003. In 2013, Beijing sent three astronauts to dock with an orbital laboratory, and it landed a lunar rover – the Jade Rabbit – on the moon in December 2013. Plans for the future include a permanent space station by 2020 and manned expeditions both to the Moon and to Mars.
John Hickman, a US professor of political science, said in August 2013, ‘There are unmistakable warning signs that China may surpass the United States and Russia to become the world's pre-eminent spacefaring power’.
Although China is presently in no more than eighth place globally by spending, its space programme has been developed based on a long-term strategy with robust political support and funding.
China may still remain inferior to the US in high technology, but it has around a quarter of a million people at work on the space programme, and they are both young and eager. With an average age in the low 30s, they recall the dynamism and enthusiasm of the Kennedy generation that built the US space programme.