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View Full Version : Teh Falloutshelter's NFL Game of the Week - Week 3 (Kansas City @ Green Bay) (SETTLED)



Teh One Who Knocks
09-22-2015, 01:41 PM
http://i.imgur.com/MdKlN4E.png

Teh One Who Knocks
09-22-2015, 01:45 PM
This is the first game this season using point spreads, so pay attention when you make your pick, your pick will now need to cover the spread for your bet to pay off.

DemonGeminiX
09-22-2015, 05:42 PM
Ok, I'm gonna say the Packers win but it's gonna be close. It probably won't but what the hey!

PorkChopSandwiches
09-22-2015, 06:19 PM
:woot:

KevinD
09-22-2015, 11:43 PM
Yeah, I'll bet right after yall explain points spreads. Lol

DemonGeminiX
09-23-2015, 02:03 AM
It's not enough for the Packers to win for you to win on your bet if you place your bet on the Packers. The Packers have to win by at least a 7-point margin for you to win on your bet.

deebakes
09-23-2015, 03:06 AM
i don't think that is right, the odds make up for the point spread :shrug:

DemonGeminiX
09-23-2015, 04:50 AM
My explanation? This is how I'm looking at it:

Take the final score, subtract 7 points from the Packer's score and if the Packers are still on top, then whoever bet on the Packers wins.

That's effectively what's going on.

RBP
09-23-2015, 11:28 AM
My explanation? This is how I'm looking at it:

Take the final score, subtract 7 points from the Packer's score and if the Packers are still on top, then whoever bet on the Packers wins.

That's effectively what's going on.


If that's the case then there is no need for Lance to manipulate the odds. Just use a spread-adjusted manual result.

Teh One Who Knocks
09-23-2015, 12:21 PM
i don't think that is right, the odds make up for the point spread :shrug:


If that's the case then there is no need for Lance to manipulate the odds. Just use a spread-adjusted manual result.

There have to be odds, the whole vBookie plugin is based on odds. What, should every wager be odds of 1 to 1 just because we're using point spreads? How would that be right? The payout can't be the same for picking an underdog as it is for picking a favorite. And you should be rewarded more heavily depending on how much of an underdog you wager on, just as you should be 'penalized' more (less favorable odds) when you bet on a favorite, especially the heavier the favorite is. Should the payout be the same for picking a 2 point underdog that covers the spread as it is for picking a 24 point underdog that covers the spread? Of course not, that's why there are odds, even when using a point spread in a gambling system such as vBookie. And casinos use the same odds when you wager at a sportsbook using point spreads, that's why there's different payouts depending on how big a favorite or underdog the team that won was, the only difference is the sportsbooks don't publish the actual odds that they are using to determine the payout, but they are using the same formula I found to convert the point spread gap to actual fractional odds, I guarantee it. The odds determine the payout amount, the point spread determines the winner.

Teh One Who Knocks
09-23-2015, 12:27 PM
My explanation? This is how I'm looking at it:

Take the final score, subtract 7 points from the Packer's score and if the Packers are still on top, then whoever bet on the Packers wins.

That's effectively what's going on.

Exactly, or you can look at it this way: basically when using point spreads, instead of the score at the beginning of the game being 0-0, the starting score for gambling purposes in this game above would be as follows:

Kansas City 0
Green Bay -7

or

Kansas City 7
Green Bay 0

(however you choose to look at it)

So because Green Bay is a 7 point favorite, they're spotting Kansas City 7 points before the game even starts. So, for this game, if you are betting on Green Bay, they have to win by 8 points or more for your wager to pay off. If they win by only 7 it becomes a push and there is no winner. If they win, but it's by less than 7 points, then they are actually the 'losing' team in the above wager and the payout goes to the people that picked Kansas City.

RBP
09-23-2015, 03:08 PM
I don't mind odds, you're right. I guess I am just confused on whether the point spread will still be applied to determine the winner of if you have increased the odds to more heavily reward an upset with no spread.

RBP
09-23-2015, 03:09 PM
Oh you already answered. lol

Teh One Who Knocks
09-23-2015, 04:32 PM
Still not sure who I'm going to pick yet, tough with the 7 point spread :-k

PorkChopSandwiches
09-23-2015, 04:36 PM
There have to be odds, the whole vBookie plugin is based on odds. What, should every wager be odds of 1 to 1 just because we're using point spreads? How would that be right? The payout can't be the same for picking an underdog as it is for picking a favorite. And you should be rewarded more heavily depending on how much of an underdog you wager on, just as you should be 'penalized' more (less favorable odds) when you bet on a favorite, especially the heavier the favorite is. Should the payout be the same for picking a 2 point underdog that covers the spread as it is for picking a 24 point underdog that covers the spread? Of course not, that's why there are odds, even when using a point spread in a gambling system such as vBookie. And casinos use the same odds when you wager at a sportsbook using point spreads, that's why there's different payouts depending on how big a favorite or underdog the team that won was, the only difference is the sportsbooks don't publish the actual odds that they are using to determine the payout, but they are using the same formula I found to convert the point spread gap to actual fractional odds, I guarantee it. The odds determine the payout amount, the point spread determines the winner.

What? No. You either play odds or spread. If you play spread the payout is what you bet even money. Otherwise you play the odds and get paid accordingly

Teh One Who Knocks
09-23-2015, 04:40 PM
Well, this is easy enough then, if everyone is going to fucking bitch about it, this will be the last time I post a game this year. Easy peasy.

PorkChopSandwiches
09-23-2015, 04:40 PM
Here's an example of a point spread:

Chicago Bears +6.5 -110
Indianapolis Colts -6.5 -110

As you can see, the Bears have a + in front of their number, which that number is called the point spread. A plus in front of a spread (aka: line) signifies that the team is an underdog and that's how many points your "getting." Getting points basically means that their free points to you that you add onto the teams true final score. If your team has more points than the other team after you'd added on your points to the final score, you are the pointspread winner.

Conversely, if you were to take the Colts at -6.5, you subtract 6.5 points from the Colts final score and compare it to the Bears true final score to determine the who wins the wager.

The -110 next to each denotes how much you have to risk to win $100. This can also be broken down as $11 to win $10. Some online sportsbooks such as Bovada offer NFL football bets for as little as $1.00 risked!

Why does a point spread exist? The spread exists because theoretically it is perceived that one team is better than another so to make up that difference, the spread is created to bring equality to the wager. Do underdogs ever win straight up? You better believe they do!


Since there is no vig, we should be getting even money on a winning bet

PorkChopSandwiches
09-23-2015, 04:42 PM
Well, this is easy enough then, if everyone is going to fucking bitch about it, this will be the last time I post a game this year. Easy peasy.

We dont want to stop doing it, we should just do it right.

RBP
09-23-2015, 05:27 PM
I'm not bitching, I'm just not that bright and easily confused. :lol:

Teh One Who Knocks
09-24-2015, 12:12 PM
Odds adjusted, we'll just play for even money from now on because that's SUPER exciting :tup:

KevinD
09-25-2015, 03:40 AM
Hey I wasn't trying to start stuff. I honestly don't understand points spreads. That said, I'm not much of a gambler, lol I actually didn't understand the odds very well either the way they were shown before. Do keep putting up the bets though, it's interesting.

Teh One Who Knocks
09-25-2015, 01:44 PM
Hey I wasn't trying to start stuff. I honestly don't understand points spreads. That said, I'm not much of a gambler, lol I actually didn't understand the odds very well either the way they were shown before. Do keep putting up the bets though, it's interesting.

You're fine :)

Basically, the point spread is used to make the teams 'even' on the gambling field. Again, as in this example, the bookies think that Green Bay is a better team than Kansas City, 7 points better in this case.

RBP
09-25-2015, 01:46 PM
Hey I wasn't trying to start stuff. I honestly don't understand points spreads. That said, I'm not much of a gambler, lol I actually didn't understand the odds very well either the way they were shown before. Do keep putting up the bets though, it's interesting.

Stop causing trouble, asshole. :x

:giggle:

KevinD
09-26-2015, 03:11 AM
Fuck you kane!! Lol

My point was I didn't understand the numbers as posted originally ( where it's now 1/1F) I kinda got the odds format, but the fractions threw me off.

RBP
09-26-2015, 03:29 AM
Math is hard for Texans. :lol: