Democrats, Republicans in tight races as Iowans prepare to caucus

[Teh One Who Knocks]

FOX News and The Associated Press


http://i.imgur.com/DzTxKlC.jpg

As Iowans prepare to cast the first votes in the presidential nominating process Monday, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders hoped to defy the polls and pull off upset victories in Monday night's caucuses.

After months of campaigning and more than $150 million spent on advertising, the race for supremacy in Iowa is close in both parties.

Among Republicans, the latest polls show real estate billionaire Donald Trump holding a slim edge over Cruz. Cruz, who became the first major candidate from either party to enter the presidential race 315 days ago, has pinned his hopes to a sophisticated get-out-the-vote operation. Cruz has also modeled his campaign after past Iowa winners, visiting all of the state's 99 counties and courting influential evangelical and conservative leaders.

"If you had told me 10 months ago that the day before the Iowa caucuses we'd be in a statistcal tie for first place I would have been thrilled and exhilarated," Cruz told Fox News late Sunday.

The Republican caucus is also the first test of whether Trump can turn the legion of fans drawn to his plainspoken populism into voters. The scope of the billionaire's organization in Iowa is a mystery, though Trump himself has intensified his campaign schedule during the final sprint, including a pair of rallies Monday.

"I don't have to win it," Trump said on CBS' “Face the Nation" Sunday. "I'm doing really well with the evangelicals in Iowa. But I'm also doing tremendously well all over the country with the evangelicals. … I think we have a good chance of winning Iowa."

By contrast, Cruz told Fox News, "We're not finding Trump's troops on the ground. ‎They don't have an organization that is perceptible."

Cruz has also spent the closing days of the Iowa campaign focused on Marco Rubio, trying to ensure the Florida senator doesn't inch into second place. Rubio is viewed by many Republicans as a more mainstream alternative to Trump and Cruz, though he'll need to stay competitive in Iowa in order to maintain his viability.

On the Democratic side, Sanders has rallied to close a 40-point polling deficit against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, reviving memories of her disappointing showing in Iowa eight years ago.

"Stick with me," Clinton said as she rallied supporters Sunday in Council Bluffs. "Stick with a plan. Stick with experience."

Sanders, whose crowds have been large and generally younger than Clinton's, urged voters to help him "make history". In a show of financial strength, Sanders' campaign announced Sunday it had raised $20 million in January alone. While Sanders has a large team in Iowa, his operation got off to a later start, particularly compared with Clinton, who has had staff on the ground in the state for nearly a year.

"I think we have a shot to win it, if people come out," Sanders told ABC's "This Week." The self-described democratic socialist's message that the U.S. economy is “rigged” against the middle class has appeared to resonate with an electorate that has grown frustrated with Washington and given rise to insurgent candidates like Sanders and Trump.

The campaigns were anxiously keeping an eye on the weather, but a snowfall forecast to start Monday night appeared more likely to hinder the hopefuls in their rush out of Iowa than any potential voters. Republican John Kasich already had decamped to New Hampshire Sunday, with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush scheduled to follow Monday afternoon, hours before the caucuses start.

The trio of governors has had a light footprint in Iowa, banking instead on strong showings in New Hampshire's Feb. 9 primary to jumpstart their White House bids. Yet some Republican leaders worry that if Trump or Cruz pull off a big victory in Iowa, it would be difficult to slow their momentum.

Unlike in primaries, where voters can cast their ballots throughout the day, the caucuses begin across Iowa at 7 p.m. CST.

Democrats will gather at 1,100 locations and Republicans at nearly 900 spots.

Turnout was expected to be high. The Iowa Republican Party expected GOP turnout to top the previous record of 120,000 people in 2012. Democrats also expect a strong turnout, though not nearly as large as the record-setting 240,000 people who caucused in the 2008 contest between Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards.

Iowa has decidedly mixed results in picking the parties' eventual nominees. The past two Republican caucus winners -- former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum -- faded as the race stretched on. But Obama's unexpected 2008 victory was instrumental in his path to the nomination, easing the anxieties of those who worried the young black senator would struggle to win white voters.

While both parties caucus on the same night, they do so with different rules.

Republicans vote by private ballot. The state's 30 Republican delegates are awarded proportionally based on the statewide vote.

Democrats take a more interactive approach, with voters forming groups and publicly declaring their support for a candidate. If the number of people in any group is fewer than 15 percent of the total, they can either choose not to participate or can join another viable candidate's group.

Those numbers are awarded proportionately, based on statewide and congressional district voting, as Iowa Democrats determine their 44 delegates to the national convention.

[RBP]

Can we v-bookie primaries? I'd be interested to know what everyone thinks will be the outcomes. Sanders is totally dependent on students, slackers, stoners, and internet introverts showing up at the caucus. Hillary wins Iowa, but narrowly. Cruz wins on the Republican side, also very narrow margin.

[redred]

Which has the most chance of stopping trump from winning?

[RBP]

Which has the most chance of stopping trump from winning?

Short term Cruz, long term Rubio.

[PorkChopSandwiches]

Cruz's eligibility will be a problem, and Rubio I just don't see getting close.

But, those ARE the only chances

Trump will be the nominee and most likely the next president

[Muddy]

It's crazy the nuts that are following sanders... The guy is a self described Socialist.. In 1960 he would have been put on trial and thrown out of the country..

[PorkChopSandwiches]

It's crazy the nuts that are following sanders... The guy is a self described Socialist.. In 1960 he would have been put on trial and thrown out of the country..

I watched the last Dem open forum, or whatever its called last week. He flat out said "we will absolutely raise taxes" And everyone cheered :shock:

[DemonGeminiX]

I watched the last Dem open forum, or whatever its called last week. He flat out said "we will absolutely raise taxes" And everyone cheered :shock:

They won't be cheering if he gets elected and they find out how much they're gonna owe.

[PorkChopSandwiches]

In his ideal world there would be a 90% tax rate :shock:

[PorkChopSandwiches]

He has the support of the college and post college crowd. They have votes and have never had to work in their lives, so they don't understand what "free" means

[redred]

how much is the mexican wall going to cost ? can't see them paying for it :lol:

[PorkChopSandwiches]

:hand: Trump will have them build it and pay for it....of course that wont have any affect on all the tunnels they have already built :lol:

[redred]

:lol:

he could get the coloured folk to build it , earn their keep

[Muddy]

There are lots of hard working black folk out here...

[redred]

would think you'd also have some hard working muslims also but he wants to rid them

[PorkChopSandwiches]

He hasn't said anything about getting rid of American Muslims, or those here on a visa. He only said we need to get our shit together (that being the USA) on who is coming in. Right now the director of the FBI has already said they are moving people in to fast to screen properly. So until they can get things in order we should put immigration from problem countries on hold

[Muddy]

He doesn't want to rid them... He wants to halt the influx of Muslim refugees. (which I dont know why they need to come here anyway... All that money in the middle East let those people take care of them... Saudi Arabia, Dubai, etc..)

[Muddy]

Oops.. Didnt see your post Porky.. We said kinda the same thing.. :lol:

[Godfather]

It's crazy the nuts that are following sanders... The guy is a self described Socialist.. In 1960 he would have been put on trial and thrown out of the country..

He'd be center-right in most of Europe :lol: I (obviously) think you guys would be lucky to have him :P

[redred]

so now that cruz won that thing last night when will he be told he won't be able to be president due to being born outside the US ?

[RBP]

Can we v-bookie primaries? I'd be interested to know what everyone thinks will be the outcomes. Sanders is totally dependent on students, slackers, stoners, and internet introverts showing up at the caucus. Hillary wins Iowa, but narrowly. Cruz wins on the Republican side, also very narrow margin.


Short term Cruz, long term Rubio.

Damn, I'm good. :dance:

[Teh One Who Knocks]

Damn, I'm good. :dance:

Not hard to predict in an uber conservative state like Iowa :slap:

[Teh One Who Knocks]

He'd be center-right in most of Europe :lol: I (obviously) think you guys would be lucky to have him :P

Yes, because I want to work my ass off and get taxed at 90% so the lazy fuckers in this country can relax at home and get government handouts for free :tup:

[Teh One Who Knocks]

FOX News and The Associated Press


http://i.imgur.com/fywNR6F.png

Iowa's Democratic Party said early Tuesday that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had gained an insurmountable lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the state's caucuses, but stopped short of officially declaring her the winner — while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz scored a decisive win over Donald Trump in the Republican caucuses, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio a close third.

Early Tuesday, the Iowa Democratic Party said Clinton had been awarded 699.57 state delegate equivalents while Sanders had received 695.49 state delegate equivalents with one precinct outstanding. That precinct was worth 2.28 state delegate equivalents — not enough for Sanders to make up the deficit.

The Clinton campaign quickly issued a statement declaring victory, saying, "Statistically, there is no outstanding information that could change the results and no way that Senator Sanders can overcome Secretary Clinton's advantage." However, a number of news outlets, including Fox News, did not immediately call the contest for the former secretary of state.

In at least three precincts, the Democratic outcome was so close that party officials ordered a coin toss to determine which candidate should receive an extra county convention delegate, a longstanding tiebreaking method. The Des Moines Register reported that Clinton won all three coin flips at precincts in Des Moines, Davenport, and Ames.

Despite his apparent defeat, the result reflected a strong showing for Sanders, who had trailed Clinton by nearly 30 points over the summer. Sanders said the results sent a “profound message” to the media and political establishment.

Cruz, too, cast his victory as a message to the Republican establishment.

“Tonight is a victory for the grassroots. Tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa and all across this great nation,” Cruz told cheering supporters.

Speaking to supporters at Drake University, Clinton said she was "breathing a big sigh of relief" about the outcome.

"Thank you Iowa. I want you to know that I’ll keep standing up for you, keep fighting for you. Join me. Let’s go win that nomination,” she said.

Sanders noted that Iowa's 44 Democratic national convention delegates would be distributed almost evenly between the two candidates. The Associated Press reported that Clinton had captured at least 22 delegates to Sanders' 21, with the remaining one going to the statewide winner.

Sanders touched on familiar themes during his speech, saying his campaign was about the people and “not billionaires buying elections.”

En route to New Hampshire, where he holds a substatial lead in the polls ahead of the Feb. 9 primary, Sanders vowed, "We're in this to the convention, and I think this [result] shows the American people we're a campaign that can win.‎"

In the Republican campaign, Cruz fought hard in recent weeks to make up lost ground in the polls and was helped in part by a sophisticated ground operation. He also hammered Trump for his decision to skip last week's Republican debate.

Meanwhile, Rubio's stronger-than-expected third place finish was helped in large part by late deciders. Entrance polling conducted by Fox News found that 35 percent of GOP caucus-goers made their choice within the last few days of the race. Of those, 30 percent broke for Rubio.

Rubio's campaign also suggested Trump’s debate boycott helped change the dynamic in the race.

With all but one precinct reporting, Cruz had 28 percent, Trump had 24 percent and Rubio had 23 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson placed a distant fourth in the race with 9 percent, while Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul placed fifth with 5 percent.

An energized Rubio touted the results at a post-caucus rally.

“For months they told us we had no chance. … They told me I needed to wait my turn,” Rubio said. “But tonight … here in Iowa, the people in this great state sent a very clear message. After seven years of Barack Obama, we are not waiting any longer to take our country back.”

Trump, for his part, argued he beat initial expectations by placing second and predicted he'd still win in New Hampshire next week.

“We will go on to get the Republican nomination, and we will go on to easily beat Hillary or Bernie or whoever the hell they throw up there,” he said. He closed his speech by saying: "I think I might come here and buy a farm, I love it.”

Republicans voted by private ballot. The state's 30 Republican delegates are awarded proportionally based on the vote, with at least eight delegates going to Cruz, seven to Trump and six to Rubio.

Two candidates dropped their presidential bids after poor showings. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, who was pulling in about 1 percent support, suspended his campaign for the Democratic nomination Monday night. And on the GOP side, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee also suspended his campaign.

Interest and turnout were high on both sides. Republican officials said there were more than 180,000 people at Monday's GOP caucuses, up from the previous high of about 121,000 in 2012. The Iowa Democratic Party said their caucuses drew 171,109 supporters, well short of the record 240,000 caucus-goers in 2008.

Several caucus sites remained open longer to accommodate long lines; some even ran out of registration forms or ballots.

Cruz rose from the middle of the Republican pack last year to overtake Trump on Monday. His victory disrupts Trump's front-runner narrative and could jolt the GOP race, where candidates have struggled for months to arrest Trump’s rise.

According to entrance polling of Republican caucus-goers conducted by Fox News, Cruz won by garnering the support of evangelical Christians and those who wanted a candidate who shares their values. Evangelical Christians made up 62 percent of Republican caucus-goers — up from 56 percent in 2012 — and of those, 33 percent backed the Texas senator.

On the Democratic side, Sanders overwhelmed Clinton among caucus-goers under 30, a group that he won 84 percent to 14 percent. However, that constituency only made up 18 percent of all Democratic caucus-goers.

On the other hand, 55 percent of all Democratic caucus-goers said they wanted the next president to continue President Obama's policies. Clinton won the support of 68 percent of that constituency.

The Iowa caucuses have had a mixed record in recent cycles, particularly on the Republican side, in picking the eventual nominees.

The GOP caucus winners in 2008 and 2012 were Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, respectively, neither of whom won the nomination.

Eight years ago, though, Obama’s Iowa win helped set him on the trajectory to claim first the Democratic nomination, then the presidency.

[Teh One Who Knocks]

so now that cruz won that thing last night when will he be told he won't be able to be president due to being born outside the US ?

Winning in Iowa isn't as big a deal as some politicians will lead you to believe. These caucuses do more to eliminate the losers than they do to predict the winners. There will be a lot of candidates dropping out of the race after last night's results.

[redred]

But will he be able to become president due to where he was born ? Some saying no, but surely stuff like that needs sorting out first :lol:

[Teh One Who Knocks]

Winning in Iowa isn't as big a deal as some politicians will lead you to believe. These caucuses do more to eliminate the losers than they do to predict the winners. There will be a lot of candidates dropping out of the race after last night's results.

In fact, the first casualties are emerging. Huckabee is suspending his campaign on the republican side (he won the Iowa caucuses 8 years ago) and O'Malley is suspending his campaign on the democrfatic side.


But will he be able to become president due to where he was born ? Some saying no, but surely stuff like that needs sorting out first :lol:

He has no realistic shot at being the republican nominee (at least I certainly hope he doesn't) and secondly, I'm sure his campaign looked into whether he was eligible to run or not, so I'm sure he's fine in that respect.

[PorkChopSandwiches]

In fact, the first casualties are emerging. Huckabee is suspending his campaign on the republican side (he won the Iowa caucuses 8 years ago) and O'Malley is suspending his campaign on the democrfatic side.



He has no realistic shot at being the republican nominee (at least I certainly hope he doesn't) and secondly, I'm sure his campaign looked into whether he was eligible to run or not, so I'm sure he's fine in that respect.

It's fairly clear he isn't eligible, but that didn't stop Obama :lol:

[Muddy]

so now that cruz won that thing last night when will he be told he won't be able to be president due to being born outside the US ?

I don't think it was a shock that Cruz won Iowa.. He got really into throwing around "the body of Christ" in his speeches to a religious crowd. Him winning Iowa doesnt mean he'll be president unless core America really is afraid of Trump..

[RBP]

I don't think it was a shock that Cruz won Iowa.. He got really into throwing around "the body of Christ" in his speeches to a religious crowd. Him winning Iowa doesnt mean he'll be president unless core America really is afraid of Trump..

Trump won't be the nominee, Rubio will.

[PorkChopSandwiches]

Trump won't be the nominee, Rubio will.

I'll take that bet, throw up a wager in Vbookie

[RBP]

I'll take that bet, through up a wager in Vbookie

I am open to real wager.

[Hugh_Janus]

Yes, because I want to work my ass off and get taxed at 90% so the lazy fuckers in this country can relax at home and get government handouts for free :tup:

you're looking at it all wrong, lance. If he gets elected, you can give up your job and then live off the state :tup:

[PorkChopSandwiches]

I am open to real wager.

:tup:

[PorkChopSandwiches]

I tried to find it yesterday, but there is a quote in here from Lance before all the debates started where he said he would probably vote for Sanders

[Goofy]

Trump will be the nominee and most likely the next president

Seriously? I thought America was just humoring him :lol:

[Goofy]

http://i.imgur.com/l4QGFlW.jpg

[Teh One Who Knocks]

Trump won't be the nominee, Rubio will.

I think it comes down to those being the last two standing


you're looking at it all wrong, lance. If he gets elected, you can give up your job and then live off the state :tup:

And if me and everyone else quits to live off the dole, where does the free money keep coming from? :confused:


I tried to find it yesterday, but there is a quote in here from Lance before all the debates started where he said he would probably vote for Sanders

:slap:

[Teh One Who Knocks]

By Jordan Smith - Opposing Views


Republican Presidential hopeful Ted Cruz has apologized following reports that his team spread a rumor immediately prior to the Iowa caucus Feb. 1 that rival candidate Ben Carson was dropping out of the presidential contest.

Cruz’s campaign team sent two email messages to supporters claiming Carson would not participate in New Hampshire and South Carolina, but failed to circulate a statement from Carson denying the report, according to Daily Mail.

The rumor allegedly began when a CNN journalist tweeted that Carson would fly home to Florida after the Iowa vote to rest.

“Please inform any Carson caucus goers of this news and urge them to caucus for Ted Cruz,” the first email from the Cruz team stated, according to Daily Mail.

“CNN is reporting that Ben Carson will stop campaigning after Iowa,” the second added. “Make sure to tell all of your peers at the caucus supporting Carson that they should coalesce around the true conservative who will be in the race for the long haul: TED CRUZ!”

Carson criticized the tactic in a statement, noting that Cruz supporters were “tweeting, texting and telling precinct captains to announce that I had suspended my campaign – in some cases asking caucus goers to change their votes.”

Carson sent an email to supporters Feb. 2 in which he expressed his anger about the previous day’s events.

“Last night, shameless tactics and dirty political plays defined the Iowa caucuses,” Carson wrote. “There is no place for this kind of unethical behavior in our American political culture, and it only intensifies my desire to work extremely hard to break down the ugliness in this system.”

Questioned during a radio interview, Cruz acknowledged the failure of his team to communicate the Carson statement.

Carson’s spokeswoman, Deana Bass, told Daily Mail the Republican candidate accepted the apology.

Cruz defeated second-placed Donald Trump in Iowa by 6,239 votes. This means that if the rumor persuaded four Carson voters in each precinct to switch to Cruz, it was the difference between victory and defeat for the Texas senator.

Final results gave Cruz 28 percent of the caucus vote, with Trump following on 24 percent, NPR reported. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida was just a percentage point behind Trump in third on 23 percent.

Mike Huckabee, after obtaining just 2 percent of the vote, announced the suspension of his campaign.

[RBP]

Politicians lying to get votes? What? I'm outraged!

[Teh One Who Knocks]

Rand Paul is suspending his campaign after a poor showing in Iowa.

[PorkChopSandwiches]

He was my first choice, but couldnt even rally his Dads supporters

[RBP]

I am open to real wager.


:tup:

http://i.imgur.com/4BITNq6.png

[Muddy]

OMG is that the bet?

[DemonGeminiX]

:rofl:

[PorkChopSandwiches]

Sounds like a win win for you, either I blow you or you do

[redred]

and it has to be video'ed and put on the site :lol:

[Teh One Who Knocks]

and it has to be video'ed and put on the site :lol:

:ghey:

[RBP]

OMG is that the bet?

:lol: No. Just being a wise ass.

[PorkChopSandwiches]

:lol:

[redred]

Presidential candidate Donald Trump has called for a new election in Iowa, accusing the Republican winner, Ted Cruz, of fraud.
Mr Trump pointed to the fact that during the caucus the Cruz campaign told voters rival Ben Carson planned to quit the race, which was not true.
The Cruz campaign apologised to Carson's camp, saying it was a misunderstanding.
Mr Trump also cited Cruz leaflets that accused Iowans of "voting violations".
Paul Pate, the top election official in Iowa, condemned the mailers on Saturday, saying the state does not track or grade individual voters.
Mr Pate said Mr Cruz's mailers "misrepresent Iowa election law" and that they were "not in keeping in the spirit of the Iowa Caucuses," but he stopped short of any official action.
"Ted Cruz didn't win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!" Mr Trump said.
Earlier, he wrote on Twitter that Mr Cruz "illegally" won the caucus, but later deleted the tweet.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35486983

[PorkChopSandwiches]

Its true, but nothing will come of it

[RBP]

Porky's right, although it's now a great opportunity to make the "you can't trust this guy" argument.

I'd go with "Even Hillary wouldn't stoop that low". :tup:

[DemonGeminiX]

Santorum's dropping out.

[RBP]

Santorum's dropping out.

Who? ;)

:lol:

[Hikari Kisugi]

How does the GOP elect its candidate?
These elections, does each win scores points, or does the % matter, or does the overall number of votes between them all count?
Anyone have a link to the process?

[PorkChopSandwiches]

I dont think there are really any rules, they can nominate who they want but if they go against the voters choice they will lose. But, Im not certain