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AntZ
06-30-2011, 09:30 PM
Fed's Massive Stimulus Had Little Impact: Greenspan

Posted By: Margo D. Beller | Special to CNBC.com

| 30 Jun 2011 | 05:24 PM ET



The Federal Reserve's massive stimulus program had little impact on the U.S. economy besides weakening the dollar and helping U.S. exports, Federal Reserve Governor Alan Greenspan told CNBC Thursday.

In a blunt critique of his successor, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Greenspan said the $2 trillion in quantative easing over the past two years had done little to loosen credit and boost the economy.

"There is no evidence that huge inflow of money into the system basically worked," Greenspan said in a live interview. "It obviously had some effect on the exchange rate and the exchange rate was a critical issue in export expansion," he said. "Aside from that, I am ill-aware of anything that really worked. Not only QE2 but QE1."

Greenspan’s comments came as the Fed ended the second installment of its bond-buying program, known as QE2, after spending $600 billion. There were no hints of any more monetary easing—or QE3—to come.

Greenspan said he "would be surprised if there was a QE3" because it would "continue erosion of the dollar."

The former Fed chairman himself has been widely criticized for the low-interest rate policy in the early and mid 2000s that many believe led to the 2008 credit crisis.

Bernanke, who took over for Greenspan in 2006, began implementing the quantitative easing program in 2009 in an attempt to unfreeze credit and prevent a collapse of the US financial system. The strategy has gotten mixed reviews so far.

On Greece, Greenspan a default is likely and will "affect the whole structure of profitability in the U.S." because of this country's large economic commitments to Europe, which holds Greek debt. Europe is also where "half the foreign [U.S.] affiliate earnings" are generated, he added.

"We can’t afford a significant drop in foreign affiliate earnings," Greenspan said.

Greenspan was also pessimistic about the U.S. deficit talks, saying he didn’t think Congress would reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling by the Aug 2 deadline.

“We’re going to get up to Aug 2 and I think on that night, we are not going to have the issue solved,” he said.

If that happens, he said, the U.S. would have to continue paying debt holders or risk major damage in global financial markets. As a result, “we will default on everything else.”

He added: “At that point, I think we’ll all come to our senses.”



http://www.cnbc.com/id/43598606

Deepsepia
06-30-2011, 10:10 PM
The Federal Reserve has done a lot of things, many more things the Federal Government has done.

There are some essential things that the Fed did to keep the system from melting down, and I'd add, they made a lot of money for the taxpayer with some of the things they did.

Quantitative easing, though, is a very tough call. You can identify that it pushed up asset prices, which was probably a good thing. You can also argue that a lot of it "leaked out" and pushed up commodity prices -- probably not a good thing.

It's a very complex story, and we'll be trying to understand it for a long time. FWIW, the folks who first implemented QE were the Brits, the Bank of England did this in fall 2008, if memory serves.

FBD
07-01-2011, 03:44 PM
:lol: was the number of things done to "keep the system from melting down" close to what they did to assist it blowing up?

all I see is kneejerk.

Deepsepia
07-01-2011, 03:52 PM
:lol: was the number of things done to "keep the system from melting down" close to what they did to assist it blowing up?

all I see is kneejerk.

No, wasn't at all "knee jerk".

Basically, the "Maiden Lane" fund unwound with witches' brew of derivative securities -- at a profit to the taxpayer-- that threatened the viability of the system. No one knew what these securities and obligations were worth/would cost. Give'em credit (so to speak) where credit is due.

The kept the system from freezing up entirely.

Your second point is well taken -- the Fed had a big role in the making of the disaster, although its worth pointing out that folks like AIG had organized their activities offshore, precisely so US regulators couldn't see it.

FBD
07-01-2011, 03:59 PM
ok, it wasnt ALL kneejerk :D

"at a profit for the taxpayer" is skating really thin ice, man :) just because some statistical manipulation can show black...

Deepsepia
07-01-2011, 04:04 PM
ok, it wasnt ALL kneejerk :D

"at a profit for the taxpayer" is skating really thin ice, man :) just because some statistical manipulation can show black...

No, its not a "statistical manipulation". Its real dollars, paid by the Federal Reserve out of the profits in managing the portfolios they were unwinding, to the Treasury, for the benefit of the taxpayer

http://picload.org/image/lcgaod/firefoxscreensna.jpg

FBD
07-01-2011, 04:16 PM
..yep, and are you going to include the rest of the context that quite changes the hue of the presentation, from rose colored to...oh, something a little closer to....sepia? :lol:

Acid Trip
07-01-2011, 04:19 PM
No, its not a "statistical manipulation". Its real dollars, paid by the Federal Reserve out of the profits in managing the portfolios they were unwinding, to the Treasury, for the benefit of the taxpayer

http://picload.org/image/lcgaod/firefoxscreensna.jpg

Until the Fed is audited the argument is moot. You can't prove they aren't lying on the numbers and he can't prove they are.