Cuomo just extended the NY school closures for another 2 weeks - state wide. He says they need 140,000 (currently 53,000) hospital beds which seems excessive. Army corp building out the extra capacity.
Cuomo just extended the NY school closures for another 2 weeks - state wide. He says they need 140,000 (currently 53,000) hospital beds which seems excessive. Army corp building out the extra capacity.
I wanted to be a Monk, but I never got the chants.
Fuck Cuomo (and Bloomberg). Until a couple weeks ago they were telling residents of the busiest city to not buy into the panic and New York is business as usual. Now they are blaming the government for their lack of preventative measures and preparation. Meanwhile the media is praising them.
DemonGeminiX (03-27-2020), Griffin (03-27-2020), RBP (03-27-2020), Teh One Who Knocks (03-27-2020)
969 dead in the last 24 hours in Italy, pushes their death total to over 9000 now.
They must be going crazy there...
https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/prof.-hu...en-to/12094494
So now we're getting TV footage here from yesterday from a mother whose 21-year-old daughter, previously complete fit and well, has died of the disease, and footage of young pregnant women in hospital with severe respiratory distress problems.....
HUGH MONTGOMERY: Well, put simply, if you get ordinary flu, you pass that on average to 1.4 people, if you could do such a thing, which means that if they then pass it on to their 1.4 each, by the time 10 cycles of infection have happened, you have been responsible for 14 cases of flu which is pretty bad.
If the coronavirus at its worst, you could infect three people. By the time you get to the 10th cycle, that 10th wave has infected another 59,000 people on its own and overall, you have been responsible for 78,000 cases of this disease.
Now if only 10 per cent of those need to go to hospital and half of those to an intensive care unit, you can do your own maths. Britain only had 1,000 adult intensive care beds a few weeks ago and we're looking as if we are going to have 17,000 intensive care cases within the next few weeks to contend with.
So this is a tsunami. We're in unchartered territory. We're coping at the moment but it will, it will be a test of our resilience really, about how we all pull together to get
Tat flu math is fubar
That's because with the regular flu they only added one persons cycle, with the corona they fanned it out and compounded everyone's cycles.
KevinD (03-28-2020)
RBP (03-28-2020)
By Adam Shaw | Fox News
President Trump on Saturday said he is considering imposing an enforceable quarantine on New York, parts of New Jersey and parts of Connecticut as part of the efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
“Some people would like to see New York quarantined because it’s a hotspot — New York, New Jersey, maybe one or two other places, certain parts of Connecticut quarantined,” he said outside the White House.
“I’m thinking about that right now. We might not have to do it but there’s a possibility that sometime today we’ll do a quarantine — short term, two weeks for New York, probably New Jersey and certain parts of Connecticut.”
He said that if such a move happened, it would be primarily a restriction on residents of those states traveling to other parts of the country. He later said that, if enacted, it would not affect truckers or trade.
He said that he had spoken to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and said there was a problem with people from New York traveling down to Florida: "We don't want that."
"This will be an enforceable quarantine, but hopefully we won’t need it," he said.
The move would be a dramatic escalation of the efforts to stop the spread of the coronavirus, and comes on the back of those states essentially shuttering daily life -- closing schools, businesses, leisure activities and urging residents to stay at home.
Cuomo, who was holding a press conference at the same time as when Trump made his remarks to the press, expressed confusion at Trump's proposal -- saying he had spoken to him about a hospital ship and opening up emergency medical sites, but not a statewide quarantine.
"I spoke to the president about the ship coming up and the four sites, I didn't speak to him about any quarantine," Cuomo said. "I haven't had those conversations, I don't even know what that means."
"I don't even know what that means. I don't know how that could be legally enforceable and from a medical point of view I don't know what you would be accomplishing," he said. "But I can tell you I don't even like the sound of it, not even understanding what it is I don't like the sound of it."
Trump told reporters that if he did go forward with the quarantine, it would be for a short time only, maybe as little as 14 days.
Trump has expressed the desire to re-open the country and get the U.S. back on a normal footing after weeks of measures to stop the virus, but has also noted that there are “hotspots” that have particularly large cases of the virus.
He has placed travel restrictions on other countries, including China, Iran and the European Union. The administration has also restricted non-essential travel at the land borders with Canada and Mexico, but this would be the first such travel restriction within the U.S.
I don't think that's right. I think this guy's math is off, but not because they've calculated it differently or fanned it as you've said, the calculation is just like compounding interest.
Flu:
First cycle = 1
Second cycle (1 x 1.4) = 1.4
Third (1.4 x 1.4) = 1.94
Fourth = 2.74
Fifth = 3.84
Sixth = 5.37
Seventh = 7.52
Eight = 10.54
Ninth = 14.75
Tenth = 20.66
Covid-19
First = 1
Second (1x3) = 3
Third = 9
Fourth = 27
Fifth = 81
Sixth = 243
Seventh = 729
Eight = 2,187
Ninth = 6561
Tenth = 19,683
Eleventh = 59,049
I'm unclear why he's comparing different numbers of cycles (I'm guessing that's what happened with his math, because both numbers referenced appear but at different cycles when I worked it out? Maybe DGX can chime in).
Still though... if you look at the difference the flu with an r0 of 1.4 versus covid-19 with an r0, the difference between 1.4 and 3 is just absolutely massive as you scale up.
Last edited by Godfather; 03-28-2020 at 08:23 PM.
KevinD (03-28-2020), lost in melb. (03-29-2020)
Last edited by DemonGeminiX; 03-28-2020 at 08:23 PM.
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Music was better when ugly people were allowed to make it.
Godfather (03-29-2020), KevinD (03-28-2020), lost in melb. (03-29-2020)
Princess Maria Teresa of Bourbon-Parma, a cousin of King Felipe IV of Spain, died on Thursday from COVID-19.
DemonGeminiX (03-29-2020), lost in melb. (03-29-2020)