China Quarantines Millions After Thousands Exposed To Mutating Virus That Has Killed Many

[lost in melb.]

It looks like you're doing it right to me. Unless he's not counting the first person as a cycle. But still, his flu numbers would be off, either way.

obviously in real life it doesn't work like maths. But I think it gives you an idea of how this thing can explode really quickly if there's no social distancing whatsoever.

[Godfather]

It's off because they purposely didn't round the number up. Leaving it at 1 guarantees that you will only be multiplying by 1.

I'm fairly sure it does not makes sense from a statistical point of view, to round up when we're calculating averages here (in any case if we're rounding, then the r0 of the flu is 1 not 2). There's not a guarantee that a virus will infect 2 if the r0 is between 1 and 2. R0 is the expected number of secondary cases produced by a single (typical) infection in a completely susceptible population. The flu is 1.4 so that's how you calculate the average number of people infected per cycle, not by rounding up or down, from my understanding. As you scale up it would skew the expected estimate worse and worse.

[lost in melb.]

Good to know our favorite billionaire is safe. Probably has a congo line of whores lined up, heads down bums up as we speak

Thanks, David Geffen, for your thoughts. pic.twitter.com/5XTRhGX5OP

— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) March 28, 2020

[Teh One Who Knocks]

By David Aaro | Fox News




New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is threatening to sue Rhode Island over its new coronavirus policy that calls for police to stop cars with New York license plates and has seen National Guard members go door-to-door to ask if anyone has arrived from the Empire State.

Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo -- like Cuomo, a Democrat -- announced the drastic new policies last week to limit the spread of the coronavirus. New York is the epicenter of the outbreak in the U.S., confirming more than 52,000 cases of COVID-19 and recording more than 700 deaths.

"I understand the goal ... but there’s a point of absurdity, and I think what Rhode Island did is at that point of absurdity," said Cuomo. “We have to keep the ideas and the policies we implement positive rather than reactionary and emotional.”



He added that he believes the two governors could "work it out."

Raimondo said the policies were intended to make sure people from New York would self-quarantine for 14 days upon arrival in Rhode Island.

“I want to be crystal clear about this: If you're coming to Rhode Island from New York you are ordered into quarantine," she said. "The reason for that is because more than half of the cases of coronavirus in America are in New York."

The National Guard started going door-to-door in Rhode Island's coastal area communities on Saturday to inform New Yorkers arriiving in the state about the 14-day quarantine policy.



State Police reportedly set up a checkpoint on Interstate 95 in Hope Valley on Friday, where drivers with New York license plates had to stop and provide contact information, WPRI-TV of Providence reported. They were told to self-quarantine for two weeks.

New Yorkers who fail to comply could face fines and jail time, Raimondo said -- although she added it wasn't the goal of her policy.



Raimondo also ordered her state's residents to stay at home -- with exceptions for getting food, medicine or going to the doctor. Nonessential retail businesses were told to close from Monday until April 13.

Cuomo also spoke about President Trump considering a quarantine for the New York City metro area before the president ultimately decided against the move.

"It would be chaos and mayhem," Cuomo said, according to The Hill. "It's totally opposite everything he's been saying. I don't think it is plausible. I don't think it is legal."

Trump later tweeted that a travel advisory should be administered and not a quarantine.

The Associated Press contributed to this report

[Teh One Who Knocks]

By Ryan Saavedra - The Daily Wire




Scientific advisers have reportedly told British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that the Chinese communist government has downplayed the true extent of the coronavirus outbreak in their country and that the real number could be “15 to 40 times” higher than what China has reported.

“Mr Johnson has been warned by scientific advisers that China’s officially declared statistics on the number of cases of coronavirus could be ‘downplayed by a factor of 15 to 40 times,’” The Daily Mail reported. “And [the British government] believes China is seeking to build its economic power during the pandemic with ‘predatory offers of help’ [to] countries around the world.'”

According to a Johns Hopkins website that tracks the coronavirus pandemic, China currently has reported approximately 82,000 cases and 3,300 deaths.

A Washington Post analysis cautioned against viewing the numbers out of China as being accurate. The Washington Post reported:

An article in the journal Science estimates that 86 percent of Hubei’s cases were undocumented by the time authorities extended the lockdown to Wuhan and other cities on Jan. 23.

It is also likely that officials reported lower numbers of deaths from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. Especially once the central government’s propaganda mission to win the “people’s war” against the virus became clear, numbers shifted to achieve that vision. Such shifts would probably be subtle — not hundreds or thousands of hidden deaths, but instead excluding deaths that could be attributed to other types of pneumonia or heart failure, for instance.

Bloomberg News reported this week that thousands of urns at funeral homes in Wuhan, combined with cremation statistics, raised further questions about the accuracy of numbers that China has reported.

China also has a history of downplaying outbreaks and not reporting accurate information on the outbreaks.

On April 21, 2003, during the SARS outbreak, The New York Times reported that China admitted to under-reporting the total number of SARS cases:

In a rare public admission of failure, if not deception, the Chinese government disclosed today that cases of a dangerous new respiratory disease were many times higher than previously reported, and stripped two top officials of their power. […]

Admitting to the existence of more than 200 previously undisclosed SARS patients in military hospitals, the official, Deputy Health Minister Gao Qiang, said that as of Friday Beijing had 339 confirmed cases of SARS and an additional 402 suspected cases.

Ten days ago, Health Minister Zhang Wenkang said there were only 22 confirmed SARS cases in Beijing. Last Wednesday, the World Health Organization caused a stir here by estimating that there could be as many as 100 to 200 cases.

The Mail reported that top officials within the British government are furious that China has tried to falsely blame the United States for the outbreak.

“There is a disgusting disinformation campaign going on and it is unacceptable,” one source told The Mail. “They [the Chinese government] know they have got this badly wrong and rather than owning it they are spreading lies.”

Another government source told The Mail regarding the U.K.’s relationship with China, “It is going to be back to the diplomatic drawing board after this. Rethink is an understatement.”

“There has to be a reckoning when this is over,” another source told The Mail.

A fourth source told The Mail, “The anger goes right to the top.”

There has long been speculation that China was not being honest about the true extent of the outbreak in their country, especially since they downplayed the outbreak at the outset, and reportedly silenced doctors and journalists.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month on China’s attempts to downplay the outbreak of the coronavirus when Wei Guixian, a seafood merchant in Wuhan, became ill with the disease.

The Journal reported:

For almost three weeks, doctors struggled to connect the dots between Ms. Wei and other early cases, many of them Hua’nan vendors. Patient after patient reported similar symptoms, but many, like her, visited small, poorly resourced clinics and hospitals. Some patients balked at paying for chest scans; others, including Ms. Wei, refused to be transferred to bigger facilities that were better-equipped to identify infectious diseases.

When doctors did finally establish the Hua’nan link in late December, they quarantined Ms. Wei and others like her and raised the alarm to their superiors. But they were prevented by Chinese authorities from alerting their peers, let alone the public.

One of the first doctors to alert Chinese authorities was criticized for “spreading rumors” after sharing with a former medical-school classmate a test result showing a patient had a coronavirus. Another doctor had to write a self-criticism letter saying his warnings “had a negative impact.”

Even after Chinese President Xi Jinping personally ordered officials to control the outbreak on Jan. 7, authorities kept denying it could spread between humans—something doctors had known was happening since late December—and went ahead with a Chinese Lunar New Year banquet involving tens of thousands of families in Wuhan.

The New York Times also reported that China acted “decisively,” but not against the virus, rather they acted “against whistle-blowers who were trying to call attention to the public health threat.”

Two weeks ago, the Financial Times reported that Taiwan reportedly warned the World Health Organization about the outbreak in December, and that the organization did nothing with the warning.

[Godfather]

I have no doubt the outbreak in China was far worse than reported, I read something just yesterday about insanely long lines of people waiting to collect their loved one's ashes in China.

I still don't think it's an excuse our our politicians can hide behind. We knew this was happening, we knew it was coming in January, reports were escaping from China all the time as they built mass hospitals and welded people in their apartments. And yet our elected leaders did next to nothing until March. Unforgivable.

[Godfather]

Scary

[lost in melb.]

Trump says keeping US Covid-19 deaths to 100,000 would be a ‘very good job’

[Godfather]

They're building field hospitals in Central Park.



https://nypost.com/2020/03/29/massiv...-central-park/

[lost in melb.]

Unbelievable. In anticipation... Pure statistical probability

[lost in melb.]

Stage 3 restrictions in Victoria now. Beaches parks, playgrounds are closed. Gatherings limited to two people outside.

In case you're curious, here's what a liberal/moderate left Premier behaves like in our neck of the woods. The policies being implemented are pretty much identical across all the different states.

[DemonGeminiX]

Trump says keeping US Covid-19 deaths to 100,000 would be a ‘very good job’

Yeah, it would be. We've got over 330 million people here in the US. A lot of those people live within close proximity to each other. This virus still has areas in the US that it can spread to, that it's going to spread to. Millions could die, if this got away from us. Clearly 100000 would be a tragedy for those people who have loved ones among that number, and it would be far better to lose as little as possible, but you have to face facts. People are going to die. There's no way around it. Saying so might be callous and cold, but it's very rational, and 100000 is a very hopeful estimate.

[DemonGeminiX]

Unbelievable. In anticipation... Pure statistical probability

It's better to have them now and not have to use them, than to not have them at all and need them later.

[Muddy]

Unbelievable. In anticipation... Pure statistical probability

If you don't and the probability comes to fruition, what do you? You have to prepare for the worst.

[Pony]

It's better to have them now and not have to use them, than to not have them at all and need them later.

That's what Cuomo said about "needing" 30,000 ventilators. Of course if the fed gives him everything we currently have there won't be anything left for the rest of the country... but fuck everyone who's not NYC, Right?